Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes
Carolina Hurricanes 59% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Hurricanes:
- Home Field Advantage. Hurricanes are 2-1 at home this season; Capitals are 1-1 on the road
- Rest Days. Hurricanes rest advantage (3 days rest) over Capitals (6 days rest)
- ELO Rating. Hurricanes ELO 1589 vs Capitals ELO 1559 (diff: +29)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Capitals defeated the Hurricanes 5-2.
Our model predicted the Hurricanes would win with 59% confidence, but the Capitals pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Hurricanes and was a notable factor: Hurricanes are 2-1 at home this season; Capitals are 1-1 on the road
- Rest Days favored the Hurricanes and was a contributing factor: Hurricanes rest advantage (3 days rest) over Capitals (6 days rest)
- ELO Rating favored the Hurricanes and was a contributing factor: Hurricanes ELO 1589 vs Capitals ELO 1559 (diff: +29)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Hurricanes have 2 player(s) ruled out, while the Capitals have 2.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Capitals won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Carolina Hurricanes
- Rest DaysFavors Carolina Hurricanes
- ELO RatingFavors Carolina Hurricanes
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Hurricanes
Capitals
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Injury Report
Hurricanes
Capitals
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Hurricanes has a 59% win probability, while Capitals has a 41% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Lenovo Center in Raleigh, NC.