Vegas Golden Knights at Colorado Avalanche

NHLregular • 2026-2027 Season

Scheduled

Avalanche

Colorado

Golden Knights

Vegas

COL 62%38% VGK

Prediction Confidence:

Moderate

Colorado Avalanche 62% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Avalanche:

Home Field Advantage. Avalanche are 0-0 at home this season
Recent Form. Avalanche (42-10) in better form than Golden Knights (29-20)
Defensive Efficiency. Avalanche defense (2.4 Opp PPG) better than Golden Knights (3.1 Opp PPG)

Make Your Prediction

View leaderboard to see rankings

VenueBall Arena

Denver, CO

Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Golden Knights (away)

Avalanche (home)

38%

Win probability

62%

High-impact factors

Players ruled out

Game Preview

Golden Knights at Avalanche

The Golden Knights visit the Avalanche at Ball Arena in Denver, CO in 2026-2027 NHL regular play.

Our model gives the Avalanche a 62% chance of winning, giving them a clear but not overwhelming advantage. The Golden Knights will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.

Key factors driving this prediction:

Home Field Advantage favors the Avalanche (medium): Avalanche are 0-0 at home this season
Recent Form favors the Avalanche (low): Avalanche (42-10) in better form than Golden Knights (29-20)
Defensive Efficiency favors the Avalanche (low): Avalanche defense (2.4 Opp PPG) better than Golden Knights (3.1 Opp PPG)

Avalanche62%

is favored to win

Key Factor

Home Field Advantage

Favors COL

Key Factors

What's driving the win probability for this game

Home Field AdvantageFavors Colorado Avalanche
Recent FormFavors Colorado Avalanche
Defensive EfficiencyFavors Colorado Avalanche
Offensive EfficiencyFavors Colorado Avalanche
ELO RatingNeutral
Turnover DifferentialNeutral

What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

VGK

COL

Home Field Advantage

Recent Form

Defensive Efficiency

Offensive Efficiency

Favours VGK|Favours COL

Premium feature: factor breakdown

Start 14-day free trial →

Understanding the win probability calculation

Team Performance

Low impactHow team performanceworks →

4 factors

Recent Form

Avalanche (42-10) in better form than Golden Knights (29-20)

Avalanche

Defensive Efficiency

Avalanche defense (2.4 Opp PPG) better than Golden Knights (3.1 Opp PPG)

Avalanche

Offensive Efficiency

Avalanche offense (3.8 PPG) outpaces Golden Knights (3.3 PPG)

Avalanche

Turnover Differential

Avalanche turnover differential (+0) vs Golden Knights (+0)

Neutral

Injuries & Personnel

Low impactHow injuries & personnelworks →

1 factor

Injuries

Similar injury situations: Avalanche (0 out) vs Golden Knights (0 out)

Neutral

Home & Venue

Medium impactHow home & venueworks →

1 factor

Home Field Advantage

Avalanche are 0-0 at home this season

Avalanche

Rest & Schedule

Low impact

1 factor

Rest Days

Similar rest: Avalanche (1 day rest) vs Golden Knights (1 day rest)

Neutral

Historical

Low impactHow historicalworks →

1 factor

Head to Head

No recent head-to-head history available

Neutral

Other

Low impact

1 factor

ELO Rating

Avalanche ELO 1490 vs Golden Knights ELO 1488 (diff: +2)

Neutral

Model version: 1.1.0 • Calculated: 8/24/2026, 8:50:00 AM

Key Players

Golden Knights

Carl LindbomG

Carter HartG

Adin HillG

William KarlssonC

Raphael LavoieC

Avalanche

Magnus ChronaG

Scott WedgewoodG

Mackenzie BlackwoodG

Gavin BrindleyC

Nazem KadriC

Learn About Our Analysis

Learn about the factors behind our predictions

Guide

NHL Win Probability

How we calculate NHL game outcome probabilities

4 min readRead article

Frequently Asked Questions

Avalanche has a 62% win probability, while Golden Knights has a 38% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at Ball Arena in Denver, CO.

View all NHL games