Toronto Maple Leafs at Vegas Golden Knights

NHLregular • 2027-2028 Season

Scheduled

Golden Knights

Vegas

Maple Leafs

Toronto

VGK 62%38% TOR

Prediction Confidence:

Moderate

Vegas Golden Knights 62% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Golden Knights:

Home Field Advantage. Golden Knights are 2-2 at home this season; Maple Leafs are 1-1 on the road
Recent Form. Golden Knights (2-1) in better form than Maple Leafs (1-2)
ELO Rating. Golden Knights ELO 1546 vs Maple Leafs ELO 1460 (diff: +86)

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VenueT-Mobile Arena

Las Vegas, NV

Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Maple Leafs (away)

Golden Knights (home)

38%

Win probability

62%

High-impact factors

Players ruled out

Game Preview

Maple Leafs at Golden Knights

The Maple Leafs visit the Golden Knights at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV in 2027-2028 NHL regular play.

Our model gives the Golden Knights a 62% chance of winning, giving them a clear but not overwhelming advantage. The Maple Leafs will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.

Key factors driving this prediction:

Home Field Advantage favors the Golden Knights (medium): Golden Knights are 2-2 at home this season; Maple Leafs are 1-1 on the road
Recent Form favors the Golden Knights (low): Golden Knights (2-1) in better form than Maple Leafs (1-2)
ELO Rating favors the Golden Knights (low): Golden Knights ELO 1546 vs Maple Leafs ELO 1460 (diff: +86)

Golden Knights62%

is favored to win

Key Factor

Home Field Advantage

Favors VGK

Key Factors

What's driving the win probability for this game

Home Field AdvantageFavors Vegas Golden Knights
Recent FormFavors Vegas Golden Knights
ELO RatingFavors Vegas Golden Knights
Rest DaysNeutral
Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
Defensive EfficiencyNeutral

What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

TOR

VGK

Home Field Advantage

Recent Form

ELO Rating

Favours TOR|Favours VGK

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Understanding the win probability calculation

Team Performance

Low impactHow team performanceworks →

4 factors

Recent Form

Golden Knights (2-1) in better form than Maple Leafs (1-2)

Golden Knights

Offensive Efficiency

Offensive efficiency stats not yet available

Neutral

Defensive Efficiency

Defensive efficiency stats not yet available

Neutral

Turnover Differential

Golden Knights turnover differential (+0) vs Maple Leafs (+0)

Neutral

Injuries & Personnel

Low impactHow injuries & personnelworks →

1 factor

Injuries

Similar injury situations: Golden Knights (0 out) vs Maple Leafs (0 out)

Neutral

Home & Venue

Medium impactHow home & venueworks →

1 factor

Home Field Advantage

Golden Knights are 2-2 at home this season; Maple Leafs are 1-1 on the road

Golden Knights

Rest & Schedule

Low impact

1 factor

Rest Days

Similar rest: Golden Knights (4 days rest) vs Maple Leafs (5 days rest)

Neutral

Historical

Low impactHow historicalworks →

1 factor

Head to Head

No recent head-to-head history available

Neutral

Other

Low impact

1 factor

ELO Rating

Golden Knights ELO 1546 vs Maple Leafs ELO 1460 (diff: +86)

Golden Knights

Model version: 1.1.0 • Calculated: 10/5/2026, 8:50:01 AM

Learn About Our Analysis

Learn about the factors behind our predictions

Guide

NHL Win Probability

How we calculate NHL game outcome probabilities

4 min readRead article

Frequently Asked Questions

Golden Knights has a 62% win probability, while Maple Leafs has a 38% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV.

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