Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers
New York Rangers 64% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Rangers:
- Injuries. Rangers healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Lightning 2 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage. Rangers are 1-1 at home this season; Lightning are 1-1 on the road
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Rangers defeated the Lightning 5-1.
Our model predicted the Rangers would win with 64% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Rangers and was a major factor: Rangers healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Lightning 2 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage favored the Rangers and was a notable factor: Rangers are 1-1 at home this season; Lightning are 1-1 on the road
- Rest Days favored the Lightning and was a contributing factor: Lightning rest advantage (5 days rest) over Rangers (1 day rest)
- The Lightning are without 2 player(s) due to injury, which could tilt the matchup.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Rangers won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors New York Rangers
- Home Field AdvantageFavors New York Rangers
- Rest DaysFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Rangers
Lightning
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries
Rangers healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Lightning 2 out, 0 doubtful
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Injury Report
Rangers
No injuries reported
Lightning
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Rangers has a 64% win probability, while Lightning has a 36% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Madison Square Garden in New York, NY.