Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders
New York Islanders 50% to win. The biggest signal favoring Islanders:
- Home Field Advantage. Islanders are 1-2 at home this season; Lightning are 1-2 on the road
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Lightning at Islanders
The Lightning visit the Islanders at UBS Arena in Elmont, NY in 2027-2028 NHL regular play.
Our model gives the Islanders a 50% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. The Lightning will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Islanders (medium): Islanders are 1-2 at home this season; Lightning are 1-2 on the road
- Recent Form favors the Lightning (low): Lightning (2-1) in better form than Islanders (1-2)
- ELO Rating favors the Lightning (low): Islanders ELO 1459 vs Lightning ELO 1523 (diff: -64)
has a slight edge to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors New York Islanders
- Recent FormFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- ELO RatingFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Key Players
Lightning
Islanders
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Islanders has a 50% win probability, while Lightning has a 50% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at UBS Arena in Elmont, NY.