Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers
Florida Panthers 59% to win. The biggest signal favoring Panthers:
- Home Field Advantage. Panthers are 1-0 at home this season; Lightning are 0-1 on the road
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Lightning defeated the Panthers 3-2.
Our model predicted the Panthers would win with 59% confidence, but the Lightning pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Panthers and was a major factor: Panthers are 1-0 at home this season; Lightning are 0-1 on the road
- Injuries favored the Lightning and was a contributing factor: Lightning healthier (2 out, 0 doubtful) vs Panthers (3 out, 0 doubtful)
- ELO Rating was neutral and a contributing factor: Panthers ELO 1512 vs Lightning ELO 1515 (diff: -4)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Panthers have 3 player(s) ruled out, while the Lightning have 2.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Lightning won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Florida Panthers
- InjuriesFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
Home Field Advantage
Panthers are 1-0 at home this season; Lightning are 0-1 on the road
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Panthers has a 59% win probability, while Lightning has a 41% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise, FL.