Tampa Bay Lightning at Colorado Avalanche
Colorado Avalanche 61% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Avalanche:
- Home Field Advantage. Avalanche are 4-0 at home this season; Lightning are 1-2 on the road
- ELO Rating. Avalanche ELO 1554 vs Lightning ELO 1527 (diff: +27)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Lightning at Avalanche
The Lightning visit the Avalanche at Ball Arena in Denver, CO in 2027-2028 NHL regular play.
Our model gives the Avalanche a 61% chance of winning, giving them a clear but not overwhelming advantage. The Lightning will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Avalanche (high): Avalanche are 4-0 at home this season; Lightning are 1-2 on the road
- ELO Rating favors the Avalanche (low): Avalanche ELO 1554 vs Lightning ELO 1527 (diff: +27)
- Recent Form is neutral: Similar form: Avalanche (3-1) vs Lightning (3-1)
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Colorado Avalanche
- ELO RatingFavors Colorado Avalanche
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
Home Field Advantage
Avalanche are 4-0 at home this season; Lightning are 1-2 on the road
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Lightning
Avalanche
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Avalanche has a 61% win probability, while Lightning has a 39% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Ball Arena in Denver, CO.