Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning 61% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Lightning:
- Home Field Advantage. Lightning are 2-1 at home this season; Flyers are 0-3 on the road
- Recent Form. Lightning (1-1) in better form than Flyers (0-1)
- ELO Rating. Lightning ELO 1517 vs Flyers ELO 1486 (diff: +31)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Lightning defeated the Flyers 4-1.
Our model predicted the Lightning would win with 61% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Lightning and was a major factor: Lightning are 2-1 at home this season; Flyers are 0-3 on the road
- Recent Form favored the Lightning and was a notable factor: Lightning (1-1) in better form than Flyers (0-1)
- Injuries favored the Flyers and was a notable factor: Flyers healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Lightning 3 out, 0 doubtful
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Lightning have 3 player(s) ruled out, while the Flyers have 3.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Lightning won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Recent FormFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- InjuriesFavors Philadelphia Flyers
- ELO RatingFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Lightning
Flyers
Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
Home Field Advantage
Lightning are 2-1 at home this season; Flyers are 0-3 on the road
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Key Players
Flyers
Lightning
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Lightning has a 61% win probability, while Flyers has a 39% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, FL.