Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning 69% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Lightning:
- Home Field Advantage. Lightning are 2-1 at home this season; Flyers are 0-3 on the road
- Recent Form. Lightning (1-1) in better form than Flyers (0-1)
- Injuries. Lightning healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Flyers 3 out, 0 doubtful
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Flyers at Lightning
The Flyers visit the Lightning at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, FL in 2027-2028 NHL regular play.
Our model gives the Lightning a 69% chance of winning, giving them a clear but not overwhelming advantage. The Flyers will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Lightning (high): Lightning are 2-1 at home this season; Flyers are 0-3 on the road
- Recent Form favors the Lightning (medium): Lightning (1-1) in better form than Flyers (0-1)
- Injuries favors the Lightning (low): Lightning healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Flyers 3 out, 0 doubtful
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Lightning have 2 player(s) ruled out, while the Flyers have 3.
is strongly favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Recent FormFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- InjuriesFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- ELO RatingFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Lightning
Flyers
Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
Home Field Advantage
Lightning are 2-1 at home this season; Flyers are 0-3 on the road
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Injury Report
Lightning
Flyers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Lightning has a 69% win probability, while Flyers has a 31% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, FL.