Minnesota Wild at Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning 52% to win. The biggest signal favoring Lightning:
- Home Field Advantage. Lightning are 2-1 at home this season; Wild are 1-2 on the road
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Wild at Lightning
The Wild visit the Lightning at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, FL in 2027-2028 NHL regular play.
Our model gives the Lightning a 52% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. The Wild will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Recent Form favors the Wild (medium): Wild (2-0) in better form than Lightning (1-1)
- Home Field Advantage favors the Lightning (medium): Lightning are 2-1 at home this season; Wild are 1-2 on the road
- ELO Rating is neutral: Lightning ELO 1517 vs Wild ELO 1508 (diff: +9)
has a slight edge to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Recent FormFavors Minnesota Wild
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Lightning has a 52% win probability, while Wild has a 48% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, FL.