Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning 63% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Lightning:
- Home Field Advantage. Lightning are 1-0 at home this season; Panthers are 0-1 on the road
- Injuries. Lightning healthier (2 out, 0 doubtful) vs Panthers (3 out, 0 doubtful)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Panthers defeated the Lightning 5-3.
Our model predicted the Lightning would win with 63% confidence, but the Panthers pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Lightning and was a major factor: Lightning are 1-0 at home this season; Panthers are 0-1 on the road
- Injuries favored the Lightning and was a contributing factor: Lightning healthier (2 out, 0 doubtful) vs Panthers (3 out, 0 doubtful)
- Rest Days favored the Panthers and was a contributing factor: Panthers rest advantage (2 days rest) over Lightning (1 day rest)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Lightning have 2 player(s) ruled out, while the Panthers have 3.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Panthers won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- InjuriesFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Rest DaysFavors Florida Panthers
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
Home Field Advantage
Lightning are 1-0 at home this season; Panthers are 0-1 on the road
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Lightning has a 63% win probability, while Panthers has a 37% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, FL.