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Florida Panthers at San Jose Sharks

NHLregular • 2027-2028 Season
completed
Sharks logo
Sharks
San Jose
4
vs
Panthers logo
Panthers
Florida
3
SJS 38%62% FLA
Prediction Confidence:
Moderate

Florida Panthers 62% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Panthers:

  • Injuries. Panthers healthier: 3 out, 0 doubtful vs Sharks 6 out, 0 doubtful
  • ELO Rating. Sharks ELO 1453 vs Panthers ELO 1522 (diff: -69)
  • Rest Days. Panthers rest advantage (2 days rest) over Sharks (5 days rest)

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VenueSAP Center at San Jose
San Jose, CA

Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Panthers (away)
Sharks (home)
62%
Win probability
38%
1
High-impact factors
0
4
Players ruled out
6

Post-Game Analysis

How our model performed

The Sharks defeated the Panthers 4-3.

Our model predicted the Panthers would win with 62% confidence, but the Sharks pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.

Looking at the factors our model weighed:

  • Injuries favored the Panthers and was a major factor: Panthers healthier: 3 out, 0 doubtful vs Sharks 6 out, 0 doubtful
  • Home Field Advantage favored the Sharks and was a contributing factor: Sharks are 1-1 at home this season; Panthers are 2-1 on the road
  • ELO Rating favored the Panthers and was a contributing factor: Sharks ELO 1453 vs Panthers ELO 1522 (diff: -69)
  • Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Sharks have 6 player(s) ruled out, while the Panthers have 4.

This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.

Sharks won 4-3

Sharks won in a close game

Prediction IncorrectWe predicted Panthers at 62%

Key Factors

What's driving the win probability for this game

  • InjuriesFavors Florida Panthers
  • Home Field AdvantageFavors San Jose Sharks
  • ELO RatingFavors Florida Panthers
  • Rest DaysFavors Florida Panthers
  • Head to HeadNeutral
  • Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
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What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

FLA
SJS
Injuries
Home Field Advantage
ELO Rating
Rest Days
Favours FLA|Favours SJS

Premium feature: factor breakdown

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Model vs. Market

Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds

Sharks

Our Model38%

Panthers

Our Model62%

Understanding the win probability calculation

Injuries

Panthers healthier: 3 out, 0 doubtful vs Sharks 6 out, 0 doubtful

Panthers

1 factor not shown (insufficient data)

Model version: 1.1.0 • Calculated: 10/2/2026, 1:45:00 AM

Sharks

Alex Barre-BouletC(Undisclosed)
OUT
Cam LundC(Upper Body)
OUT
Kyle KeyserG(Upper Body)
OUT
Quentin MustyLW(Upper Body)
OUT
Patrick GilesRW(Upper Body)
OUT
Adam GaudetteRW(Upper Body)
OUT

Panthers

Gustav ForslingD(Upper Body)
OUT
Brad MarchandLW(Lower Body)
OUT
Jonah GadjovichLW(Upper Body)
OUT
MacKenzie EntwistleRW(Undisclosed)
OUT

Learn About Our Analysis

Learn about the factors behind our predictions

Guide

NHL Win Probability

How we calculate NHL game outcome probabilities

4 min readRead article

Frequently Asked Questions

Sharks has a 38% win probability, while Panthers has a 62% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at SAP Center at San Jose in San Jose, CA.

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