Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights

NHLregular • 2026-2027 Season

Scheduled

Golden Knights

Vegas

Avalanche

Colorado

VGK 49%51% COL

Prediction Confidence:

Moderate

Colorado Avalanche 51% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Avalanche:

Recent Form. Avalanche (42-10) in better form than Golden Knights (29-20)
Defensive Efficiency. Avalanche defense (2.4 Opp PPG) better than Golden Knights (3.1 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency. Avalanche offense (3.8 PPG) outpaces Golden Knights (3.3 PPG)

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VenueT-Mobile Arena

Las Vegas, NV

Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Avalanche (away)

Golden Knights (home)

51%

Win probability

49%

High-impact factors

Players ruled out

Game Preview

Avalanche at Golden Knights

The Avalanche visit the Golden Knights at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV in 2026-2027 NHL regular play.

Our model gives the Avalanche a 51% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. The Golden Knights will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.

Key factors driving this prediction:

Home Field Advantage favors the Golden Knights (medium): Golden Knights are 0-0 at home this season
Recent Form favors the Avalanche (low): Avalanche (42-10) in better form than Golden Knights (29-20)
Defensive Efficiency favors the Avalanche (low): Avalanche defense (2.4 Opp PPG) better than Golden Knights (3.1 Opp PPG)

Avalanche51%

has a slight edge to win

Key Factor

Home Field Advantage

Favors VGK

Key Factors

What's driving the win probability for this game

Home Field AdvantageFavors Vegas Golden Knights
Recent FormFavors Colorado Avalanche
Defensive EfficiencyFavors Colorado Avalanche
Offensive EfficiencyFavors Colorado Avalanche
Rest DaysNeutral
ELO RatingNeutral

What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

COL

VGK

Home Field Advantage

Recent Form

Defensive Efficiency

Offensive Efficiency

Favours COL|Favours VGK

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Understanding the win probability calculation

Team Performance

Low impactHow team performanceworks →

4 factors

Recent Form

Avalanche (42-10) in better form than Golden Knights (29-20)

Avalanche

Defensive Efficiency

Avalanche defense (2.4 Opp PPG) better than Golden Knights (3.1 Opp PPG)

Avalanche

Offensive Efficiency

Avalanche offense (3.8 PPG) outpaces Golden Knights (3.3 PPG)

Avalanche

Turnover Differential

Golden Knights turnover differential (+0) vs Avalanche (+0)

Neutral

Injuries & Personnel

Low impactHow injuries & personnelworks →

1 factor

Injuries

Similar injury situations: Golden Knights (0 out) vs Avalanche (0 out)

Neutral

Home & Venue

Medium impactHow home & venueworks →

1 factor

Home Field Advantage

Golden Knights are 0-0 at home this season

Golden Knights

Rest & Schedule

Low impact

1 factor

Rest Days

Similar rest: Golden Knights (3 days rest) vs Avalanche (3 days rest)

Neutral

Historical

Low impactHow historicalworks →

1 factor

Head to Head

No recent head-to-head history available

Neutral

Other

Low impact

1 factor

ELO Rating

Golden Knights ELO 1488 vs Avalanche ELO 1490 (diff: -2)

Neutral

Model version: 1.1.0 • Calculated: 7/11/2026, 8:50:01 AM

Key Players

Avalanche

Mackenzie BlackwoodG

Scott WedgewoodG

Magnus ChronaG

Parker KellyC

Martin NecasC

Golden Knights

Carl LindbomG

Carter HartG

Adin HillG

William KarlssonC

Raphael LavoieC

Learn About Our Analysis

Learn about the factors behind our predictions

Guide

NHL Win Probability

How we calculate NHL game outcome probabilities

4 min readRead article

Frequently Asked Questions

Golden Knights has a 49% win probability, while Avalanche has a 51% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV.

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