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Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHLregular • 2027-2028 Season
Scheduled
Lightning logo
Lightning
Tampa Bay
0
vs
Blackhawks logo
Blackhawks
Chicago
0
TBL 69%31% CHI
Prediction Confidence:
Moderate

Tampa Bay Lightning 69% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Lightning:

  • Home Field Advantage. Lightning are 6-1 at home this season; Blackhawks are 0-6 on the road
  • Recent Form. Lightning (7-2) in better form than Blackhawks (3-6)
  • ELO Rating. Lightning ELO 1544 vs Blackhawks ELO 1435 (diff: +108)

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Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Blackhawks (away)
Lightning (home)
31%
Win probability
69%
0
High-impact factors
1
0
Players ruled out
0

Game Preview

Blackhawks at Lightning

The Blackhawks visit the Lightning at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, FL in 2027-2028 NHL regular play.

Our model gives the Lightning a 69% chance of winning, giving them a clear but not overwhelming advantage. The Blackhawks will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.

Key factors driving this prediction:

  • Home Field Advantage favors the Lightning (high): Lightning are 6-1 at home this season; Blackhawks are 0-6 on the road
  • Recent Form favors the Lightning (medium): Lightning (7-2) in better form than Blackhawks (3-6)
  • ELO Rating favors the Lightning (low): Lightning ELO 1544 vs Blackhawks ELO 1435 (diff: +108)
Lightning69%

is strongly favored to win

Key Factor
Home Field Advantage
Favors TBL

Key Factors

What's driving the win probability for this game

  • Home Field AdvantageFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
  • Recent FormFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
  • ELO RatingFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
  • InjuriesNeutral
  • Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
  • Head to HeadNeutral
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What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

CHI
TBL
Home Field Advantage
Recent Form
ELO Rating
Favours CHI|Favours TBL

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Understanding the win probability calculation

Home Field Advantage

Lightning are 6-1 at home this season; Blackhawks are 0-6 on the road

Lightning

1 factor not shown (insufficient data)

Model version: 1.1.0 • Calculated: 10/23/2026, 8:50:04 AM

Key Players

Blackhawks

Arvid SoderblomG
Spencer KnightG
Connor BedardC
Ryan DonatoC
Anton FrondellC

Lightning

Dennis HildebyG
Andrei VasilevskiyG
Yanni GourdeC
Jansen HarkinsC
Conor GeekieC

Learn About Our Analysis

Learn about the factors behind our predictions

Guide

NHL Win Probability

How we calculate NHL game outcome probabilities

4 min readRead article

Frequently Asked Questions

Lightning has a 69% win probability, while Blackhawks has a 31% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, FL.

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