NFL weekly recap: 2026 week 6
Hit rate this week: 43% across 14 games; season-to-date: 54%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 73% — final LAR 16–ARI 18
- Injuries (favors LAR)
- ELO Rating (favors LAR)
- Home Field Advantage (favors LAR)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks at Broncos Fri, Oct 16 | DEN 60% • SEA 40% | DEN 17–SEA 14 | Hit |
| Texans at Jaguars Sun, Oct 18 | JAX 62% • HOU 38% | JAX 31–HOU 34 | Miss |
| Steelers at Buccaneers Sun, Oct 18 | TB 67% • PIT 33% | TB 19–PIT 26 | Miss |
| Ravens at Browns Sun, Oct 18 | CLE 43% • BAL 57% | CLE 13–BAL 10 | Miss |
| Jets at Patriots Sun, Oct 18 | NE 48% • NYJ 52% | NE 26–NYJ 19 | Miss |
| Bears at Falcons Sun, Oct 18 | ATL 47% • CHI 53% | ATL 23–CHI 31 | Hit |
| Titans at Colts Sun, Oct 18 | IND 54% • TEN 46% | IND 20–TEN 26 | Miss |
| Panthers at Eagles Sun, Oct 18 | PHI 43% • CAR 57% | PHI 14–CAR 25 | Hit |
| Saints at Giants Sun, Oct 18 | NYG 57% • NO 43% | NYG 27–NO 34 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Rams Sun, Oct 18 | LAR 73% • ARI 27% | LAR 16–ARI 18 | Miss |
| Bills at Raiders Sun, Oct 18 | LV 35% • BUF 65% | LV 30–BUF 33 | Hit |
| Chargers at Chiefs Sun, Oct 18 | KC 57% • LAC 43% | KC 22–LAC 6 | Hit |
| Cowboys at Packers Mon, Oct 19 | GB 49% • DAL 51% | GB 23–DAL 13 | Miss |
| Commanders at 49ers Tue, Oct 20 | SF 58% • WSH 42% | SF 23–WSH 17 | Hit |