Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

NFLWeek 18 • regular • 2024

completed

Broncos

Denver

Chiefs

Kansas City

DEN 53%47% KC

Prediction Confidence:

High

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VenueEmpower Field at Mile High

Denver, CO

Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Chiefs (away)

Broncos (home)

47%

Win probability

53%

High-impact factors

Players ruled out

Broncos won 38-0

Broncos won in a blowout

Prediction CorrectWe predicted Broncos at 53%

What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

DEN

Home Field Advantage

Defensive Efficiency

Rest Days

Recent Form

Turnover Differential

Offensive Efficiency

Favours KC|Favours DEN

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Understanding the win probability calculation

Team Performance

Low impactHow team performanceworks →

4 factors

Defensive Efficiency

Kansas City Chiefs defense (4.5 YPP allowed) is stronger than Denver Broncos (5.0 YPP allowed)

Chiefs

Recent Form

Denver Broncos (10-8) in better form than Kansas City Chiefs (8-10)

Broncos

Turnover Differential

Denver Broncos turnover differential (+3) vs Kansas City Chiefs (+2)

Neutral

Offensive Efficiency

Similar offensive efficiency (4.8 vs 4.8 YPP)

Neutral

Injuries & Personnel

Low impactHow injuries & personnelworks →

1 factor

Injuries

Similar injury situations: Denver Broncos (0 out) vs Kansas City Chiefs (0 out)

Neutral

Home & Venue

Medium impactHow home & venueworks →

1 factor

Home Field Advantage

Denver Broncos are 7-2 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)

Broncos

Rest & Schedule

Low impact

1 factor

Rest Days

Kansas City Chiefs has rest advantage (11 days) over Denver Broncos (7 days)

Chiefs

Historical

Low impactHow historicalworks →

1 factor

Head to Head

No recent head-to-head history available

Neutral

1 factor not shown (insufficient data)

Model version: 1.0.0 • Calculated: 2/27/2026, 10:41:15 PM

Learn About Our Analysis

Learn about the factors behind our predictions

Guide

NFL Win Probability

How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics

4 min readRead article

Deep Dive

Home Field Advantage

How playing at home affects NFL win probability

3 min readRead article

Deep Dive

NFL Weather Impact

How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions

3 min readRead article

Frequently Asked Questions

Broncos has a 53% win probability, while Chiefs has a 47% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, CO.

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