Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Colts defeated the Jaguars 26-23.
Our model predicted the Colts would win with 69% confidence -- and they delivered. A solid prediction that lined up with the result.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Colts and was a contributing factor: Indianapolis Colts offense (5.2 YPP) outpaces Jacksonville Jaguars (4.7 YPP)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Colts and was a notable factor: Indianapolis Colts are 8-3 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Colts and was a contributing factor: Indianapolis Colts defense (4.7 YPP allowed) is stronger than Jacksonville Jaguars (5.1 YPP allowed)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Colts won in a close game
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Colts has a 69% win probability, while Jaguars has a 31% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN.