NBA Intelligence Board
Upcoming NBA games ranked by model-market disagreement — where the model sees the most edge, why, and how confidence has shifted.
Defensive Efficiency✦ · favors LAC — Clippers defense (101.0 Opp PPG) better than Raptors (129.0 Opp PPG)
Injuries↕ · favors DET — Pistons healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Wizards 2 out, 0 doubtful
Defensive Efficiency✦ · favors IND — Pacers defense (112.0 Opp PPG) better than Hawks (124.0 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency✦ · favors MIA — Heat offense (128.5 PPG) outpaces Timberwolves (114.0 PPG)
Offensive Efficiency↕ · favors BOS — Celtics offense (124.0 PPG) outpaces 76ers (114.0 PPG)
Offensive Efficiency✦ · favors GSW — Warriors offense (114.3 PPG) outpaces Kings (106.5 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency↕ · favors PHX — Suns defense (116.5 Opp PPG) better than Spurs (123.0 Opp PPG)
ELO Rating✦ · favors HOU — Rockets ELO 1537 vs Mavericks ELO 1429 (diff: +108); both ratings carried over from last season
Offensive Efficiency✦ · favors ORL — Magic offense (122.0 PPG) outpaces Cavaliers (113.0 PPG)
Offensive Efficiency✦ · favors MIL — Bucks offense (112.5 PPG) outpaces Hornets (90.0 PPG)
Offensive Efficiency✦ · favors CHI — Bulls offense (124.0 PPG) outpaces Nuggets (107.0 PPG)
Offensive Efficiency✦ · favors ATL — Hawks offense (123.0 PPG) outpaces Thunder (118.0 PPG)
Offensive Efficiency✦ · favors BKN — Nets offense (119.0 PPG) outpaces Wizards (111.0 PPG)
Offensive Efficiency✦ · favors MIN — Timberwolves offense (114.0 PPG) outpaces Knicks (103.0 PPG)
Model outputs are for informational purposes only. Edge is the difference between the model's win probability and vig-normalized market odds.