Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks
Oklahoma City Thunder 52% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Thunder:
- Defensive Efficiency. Thunder defense (117.2 Opp PPG) better than Mavericks (125.0 Opp PPG)
- ELO Rating. Mavericks ELO 1438 vs Thunder ELO 1635 (diff: -197)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Thunder at Mavericks
The Thunder visit the Mavericks at American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX in 2027-2028 NBA regular play.
Our model gives the Thunder a 52% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. The Mavericks will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Offensive Efficiency favors the Mavericks (high): Mavericks offense (124.5 PPG) outpaces Thunder (115.0 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favors the Thunder (high): Thunder defense (117.2 Opp PPG) better than Mavericks (125.0 Opp PPG)
- ELO Rating favors the Thunder (medium): Mavericks ELO 1438 vs Thunder ELO 1635 (diff: -197)
has a slight edge to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Dallas Mavericks
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- ELO RatingFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Dallas Mavericks
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Mavericks offense (124.5 PPG) outpaces Thunder (115.0 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Thunder defense (117.2 Opp PPG) better than Mavericks (125.0 Opp PPG)
Turnover Differential
Mavericks turnover differential (+0) vs Thunder (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Medium impact1 factor
2 factors not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Thunder
Mavericks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Mavericks has a 48% win probability, while Thunder has a 52% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX.