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New Orleans Pelicans at Oklahoma City Thunder

NBApreseason • 2027-2028 Season
Scheduled
Thunder logo
Thunder
Oklahoma City
0
vs
Pelicans logo
Pelicans
New Orleans
0
OKC 61%39% NOP
Prediction Confidence:
Moderate

Oklahoma City Thunder 61% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Thunder:

  • ELO Rating. Thunder ELO 1673 vs Pelicans ELO 1425 (diff: +248); both ratings carried over from last season
  • Home Field Advantage. Standard home-field edge for Thunder (no home or road games yet this season)

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VenueBOK Center
Tulsa, OK

Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Pelicans (away)
Thunder (home)
39%
Win probability
61%
0
High-impact factors
1
0
Players ruled out
0

Game Preview

Pelicans at Thunder

The Pelicans visit the Thunder at BOK Center in Tulsa, OK in 2027-2028 NBA preseason play.

Our model gives the Thunder a 61% chance of winning, giving them a clear but not overwhelming advantage. The Pelicans will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.

Key factors driving this prediction:

  • ELO Rating favors the Thunder (high): Thunder ELO 1673 vs Pelicans ELO 1425 (diff: +248); both ratings carried over from last season
  • Home Field Advantage favors the Thunder (medium): Standard home-field edge for Thunder (no home or road games yet this season)
  • Injuries favors the Pelicans (low): Pelicans less affected by injuries: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Thunder 0 out, 0 doubtful, but the missing Thunder players m...
Thunder61%

is favored to win

Key Factor
ELO Rating
Favors OKC

Key Factors

What's driving the win probability for this game

  • ELO RatingFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
  • Home Field AdvantageFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
  • InjuriesFavors New Orleans Pelicans
  • Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
  • Head to HeadNeutral
  • Rest DaysNeutral
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What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

NOP
OKC
ELO Rating
Home Field Advantage
Injuries
Favours NOP|Favours OKC

Premium feature: factor breakdown

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Understanding the win probability calculation

ELO Rating

Thunder ELO 1673 vs Pelicans ELO 1425 (diff: +248); both ratings carried over from last season

Thunder

2 factors not shown (insufficient data)

Model version: 1.1.0 • Calculated: 10/4/2026, 8:30:01 AM

Thunder

Thomas SorberC(Knee)
QUESTIONABLE
Nikola TopicG(Back)
QUESTIONABLE
Otega OwehG(Lower Leg)
QUESTIONABLE

Pelicans

Bryce McGowensG(Toe)
QUESTIONABLE

Learn About Our Analysis

Learn about the factors behind our predictions

Guide

NBA Win Probability

How we calculate NBA game outcome probabilities

4 min readRead article
Deep Dive

Back-to-Back Fatigue

How schedule and rest affect NBA game outcomes

3 min readRead article

Frequently Asked Questions

Thunder has a 61% win probability, while Pelicans has a 39% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at BOK Center in Tulsa, OK.

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