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Milwaukee Bucks at Oklahoma City Thunder

NBApreseason • 2027-2028 Season
completed
Thunder logo
Thunder
Oklahoma City
126
vs
Bucks logo
Bucks
Milwaukee
128
OKC 71%29% MIL
Prediction Confidence:
Moderate

Oklahoma City Thunder 71% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Thunder:

  • Offensive Efficiency. Thunder offense (110.0 PPG) outpaces Bucks (97.0 PPG)
  • ELO Rating. Thunder ELO 1646 vs Bucks ELO 1388 (diff: +258)

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VenuePaycom Center
Oklahoma City, OK

Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Bucks (away)
Thunder (home)
29%
Win probability
71%
0
High-impact factors
2
0
Players ruled out
0

Post-Game Analysis

How our model performed

The Bucks defeated the Thunder 128-126.

Our model predicted the Thunder would win with 71% confidence, but the Bucks pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.

Looking at the factors our model weighed:

  • Offensive Efficiency favored the Thunder and was a major factor: Thunder offense (110.0 PPG) outpaces Bucks (97.0 PPG)
  • ELO Rating favored the Thunder and was a major factor: Thunder ELO 1646 vs Bucks ELO 1388 (diff: +258)
  • Injuries favored the Bucks and was a notable factor: Bucks less affected by injuries: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Thunder 0 out, 0 doubtful, but the missing Thunder players matt...

This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.

Bucks won 126-128

Bucks won in a close game

Prediction IncorrectWe predicted Thunder at 71%

Key Factors

What's driving the win probability for this game

  • Offensive EfficiencyFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
  • ELO RatingFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
  • InjuriesFavors Milwaukee Bucks
  • Rest DaysFavors Milwaukee Bucks
  • Home Field AdvantageNeutral
  • Recent FormNeutral
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What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

MIL
OKC
Offensive Efficiency
ELO Rating
Injuries
Rest Days
Home Field Advantage
Favours MIL|Favours OKC

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Understanding the win probability calculation

Offensive Efficiency

Thunder offense (110.0 PPG) outpaces Bucks (97.0 PPG)

Thunder

Defensive Efficiency

Similar defensive efficiency (116.0 vs 116.0 Opp PPG)

Neutral

Turnover Differential

Thunder turnover differential (+0) vs Bucks (+0)

Neutral

ELO Rating

Thunder ELO 1646 vs Bucks ELO 1388 (diff: +258)

Thunder

1 factor not shown (insufficient data)

Model version: 1.1.0 • Calculated: 10/7/2026, 11:45:02 PM

Thunder

Thomas SorberC(Knee)
QUESTIONABLE
Chet HolmgrenC(Rest)
QUESTIONABLE
Isaiah HartensteinC(Ankle)
QUESTIONABLE
Jaylin WilliamsF(Heel)
QUESTIONABLE
Nikola TopicG(Back)
QUESTIONABLE

Bucks

No injuries reported

Key Players

Bucks

Caris LeVertG
Kasparas JakucionisG
AJ GreenG
Tyler HerroG
Kevin Porter Jr.G

Thunder

Alex CarusoG
Jalen WilliamsG
Kenrich WilliamsG
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG
Josh DixG

Learn About Our Analysis

Learn about the factors behind our predictions

Guide

NBA Win Probability

How we calculate NBA game outcome probabilities

4 min readRead article
Deep Dive

Back-to-Back Fatigue

How schedule and rest affect NBA game outcomes

3 min readRead article

Frequently Asked Questions

Thunder has a 71% win probability, while Bucks has a 29% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, OK.

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