Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers 75% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Pacers:
- Defensive Efficiency. Pacers defense (112.0 Opp PPG) better than Hawks (124.0 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Pacers are 1-0 at home this season; Hawks are 1-0 on the road
- Rest Days. Pacers rest advantage (3 days rest) over Hawks (1 day rest)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Hawks defeated the Pacers 119-117.
Our model predicted the Pacers would win with 75% confidence, but the Hawks pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Pacers and was a major factor: Pacers defense (112.0 Opp PPG) better than Hawks (124.0 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Pacers and was a notable factor: Pacers are 1-0 at home this season; Hawks are 1-0 on the road
- Rest Days favored the Pacers and was a contributing factor: Pacers rest advantage (3 days rest) over Hawks (1 day rest)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Pacers have 1 player(s) ruled out, while the Hawks have 1.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Hawks won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Indiana Pacers
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Indiana Pacers
- Rest DaysFavors Indiana Pacers
- ELO RatingFavors Atlanta Hawks
- InjuriesFavors Indiana Pacers
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Pacers defense (112.0 Opp PPG) better than Hawks (124.0 Opp PPG)
Turnover Differential
Pacers turnover differential (+0) vs Hawks (+0)
Offensive Efficiency
Similar offensive efficiency (123.0 vs 123.0 PPG)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Hawks
Pacers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Pacers has a 75% win probability, while Hawks has a 25% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, IN.