About PlayDecoded
We believe sports analysis should show its work.
Our Mission
Most prediction sites give you a number. We think that's not enough. When we say a team has a 65% win probability, you deserve to know why—which factors are driving that prediction, how confident we are in each one, and where you might reasonably disagree with our model.
PlayDecoded was built on a simple idea: transparency makes better analysis. We show our work so you can make informed decisions, whether you're a fantasy manager looking for an edge, a casual fan curious about matchup dynamics, or just someone who wants to understand the game better.
What We Build
Win Probability Models
Sport-specific probability calculations built on historical performance data, calibrated against thousands of actual game outcomes.
Factor Breakdowns
See exactly what's driving each prediction: home field, weather, injuries, recent form, and more—with impact ratings for each factor.
Market Comparison
Compare our model's probabilities against market-implied odds. When the model sees a team's chances differently from the market, we surface that gap automatically.
Real-Time Updates
Probabilities update as injury reports change, weather forecasts shift, and new information becomes available.
Our Approach
Sport-specific models: We don't use a one-size-fits-all formula. NFL probabilities account for weather and bye weeks. NBA models factor in back-to-backs and travel. Each sport gets the factors that actually matter for that sport.
Continuous calibration: We track our predictions against actual outcomes and adjust. When we say a team has a 70% chance, they should win about 70% of those games. We verify this.
Confidence ratings: Not all predictions are created equal. We show you when we're more or less confident based on sample size, injury volatility, and model calibration for similar situations.
Open methodology: We explain our factors, their weights, and why they matter. Check our How It Works page for the details.
Our Data Sources
We aggregate data from official league sources and trusted sports data providers. Game statistics, injury reports, weather forecasts, and market odds are collected and processed daily during active seasons. All data is verified against official sources before being incorporated into our models.
Who Uses PlayDecoded
Fantasy Managers
Get an edge on matchup decisions. Know which starters face favorable conditions, which defenses are rested, and where the model sees mismatches before you lock your lineup.
Sports Analysts
Use our factor breakdowns as a starting point for deeper analysis. See how quantifiable inputs stack up before layering in context the model can't capture.
Curious Fans
Understand the game better. When a team is favored, we show you exactly why— so you can watch with more context and argue with more confidence.
Attribution
All analysis and content on PlayDecoded is produced by the PlayDecoded Analytics Team. Our methodology is developed in-house based on published sports analytics research and proprietary modeling techniques.
Questions about our methodology? Contact us