Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers
Edmonton Oilers 63% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Oilers:
- Home Field Advantage. Oilers are 3-1 at home this season; Maple Leafs are 2-2 on the road
- Recent Form. Oilers (4-0) in better form than Maple Leafs (3-2)
- ELO Rating. Oilers ELO 1546 vs Maple Leafs ELO 1473 (diff: +73)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Maple Leafs at Oilers
The Maple Leafs visit the Oilers at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB in 2027-2028 NHL regular play.
Our model gives the Oilers a 63% chance of winning, giving them a clear but not overwhelming advantage. The Maple Leafs will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Oilers (medium): Oilers are 3-1 at home this season; Maple Leafs are 2-2 on the road
- Recent Form favors the Oilers (low): Oilers (4-0) in better form than Maple Leafs (3-2)
- ELO Rating favors the Oilers (low): Oilers ELO 1546 vs Maple Leafs ELO 1473 (diff: +73)
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Edmonton Oilers
- Recent FormFavors Edmonton Oilers
- ELO RatingFavors Edmonton Oilers
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Key Players
Maple Leafs
Oilers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Oilers has a 63% win probability, while Maple Leafs has a 37% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB.