PlayDecoded
Menu

Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche

NHLregular • 2027-2028 Season
Scheduled
Avalanche logo
Avalanche
Colorado
0
vs
Maple Leafs logo
Maple Leafs
Toronto
0
COL 67%33% TOR
Prediction Confidence:
Moderate

Colorado Avalanche 67% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Avalanche:

  • Home Field Advantage. Avalanche are 4-0 at home this season; Maple Leafs are 1-1 on the road
  • Recent Form. Avalanche (2-0) in better form than Maple Leafs (2-2)
  • ELO Rating. Avalanche ELO 1551 vs Maple Leafs ELO 1465 (diff: +86)

Make Your Prediction

Sign in to make predictions

View leaderboard to see rankings

VenueBall Arena
Denver, CO

Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Maple Leafs (away)
Avalanche (home)
33%
Win probability
67%
0
High-impact factors
0
0
Players ruled out
0

Game Preview

Maple Leafs at Avalanche

The Maple Leafs visit the Avalanche at Ball Arena in Denver, CO in 2027-2028 NHL regular play.

Our model gives the Avalanche a 67% chance of winning, giving them a clear but not overwhelming advantage. The Maple Leafs will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.

Key factors driving this prediction:

  • Home Field Advantage favors the Avalanche (medium): Avalanche are 4-0 at home this season; Maple Leafs are 1-1 on the road
  • Recent Form favors the Avalanche (medium): Avalanche (2-0) in better form than Maple Leafs (2-2)
  • ELO Rating favors the Avalanche (low): Avalanche ELO 1551 vs Maple Leafs ELO 1465 (diff: +86)
Avalanche67%

is strongly favored to win

Key Factor
Home Field Advantage
Favors COL

Key Factors

What's driving the win probability for this game

  • Home Field AdvantageFavors Colorado Avalanche
  • Recent FormFavors Colorado Avalanche
  • ELO RatingFavors Colorado Avalanche
  • Rest DaysFavors Toronto Maple Leafs
  • InjuriesNeutral
  • Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
Sign in to see factor scores, charts, and what-if simulations

What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

TOR
COL
Home Field Advantage
Recent Form
ELO Rating
Rest Days
Favours TOR|Favours COL

Premium feature: factor breakdown

Start 14-day free trial →

Understanding the win probability calculation

Model version: 1.1.0 • Calculated: 10/7/2026, 8:50:02 AM

Key Players

Maple Leafs

Sergei BobrovskyG
Anthony StolarzG
Bo GroulxC
John TavaresC
Jack RoslovicC

Avalanche

Trent MinerG
Mackenzie BlackwoodG
Scott WedgewoodG
Nazem KadriC
Parker KellyC

Learn About Our Analysis

Learn about the factors behind our predictions

Guide

NHL Win Probability

How we calculate NHL game outcome probabilities

4 min readRead article

Frequently Asked Questions

Avalanche has a 67% win probability, while Maple Leafs has a 33% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at Ball Arena in Denver, CO.

View all NHL games