Toronto Maple Leafs at Calgary Flames
Toronto Maple Leafs 54% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Maple Leafs:
- Recent Form. Maple Leafs (3-2) in better form than Flames (0-5)
- ELO Rating. Flames ELO 1426 vs Maple Leafs ELO 1473 (diff: -46)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
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Maple Leafs at Flames
The Maple Leafs visit the Flames at Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, AB in 2027-2028 NHL regular play.
Our model gives the Maple Leafs a 54% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. The Flames will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Recent Form favors the Maple Leafs (medium): Maple Leafs (3-2) in better form than Flames (0-5)
- Home Field Advantage favors the Flames (low): Flames are 1-4 at home this season; Maple Leafs are 2-2 on the road
- ELO Rating favors the Maple Leafs (low): Flames ELO 1426 vs Maple Leafs ELO 1473 (diff: -46)
has a slight edge to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Recent FormFavors Toronto Maple Leafs
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Calgary Flames
- ELO RatingFavors Toronto Maple Leafs
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Maple Leafs
Flames
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Flames has a 46% win probability, while Maple Leafs has a 54% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, AB.