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St. Louis Blues at Dallas Stars

NHLregular • 2027-2028 Season
completed
Stars logo
Stars
Dallas
0
vs
Blues logo
Blues
St. Louis
4
DAL 48%52% STL
Prediction Confidence:
Moderate

St. Louis Blues 52% to win. The biggest signal favoring Blues:

  • Injuries. Blues healthier: 3 out, 0 doubtful vs Stars 6 out, 0 doubtful

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Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Blues (away)
Stars (home)
52%
Win probability
48%
1
High-impact factors
1
3
Players ruled out
6

Post-Game Analysis

How our model performed

The Blues defeated the Stars 4-0.

Our model predicted the Blues would win with 52% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.

Looking at the factors our model weighed:

  • Injuries favored the Blues and was a major factor: Blues healthier: 3 out, 0 doubtful vs Stars 6 out, 0 doubtful
  • Home Field Advantage favored the Stars and was a major factor: Stars are 2-0 at home this season; Blues are 0-2 on the road
  • ELO Rating was neutral and a contributing factor: Stars ELO 1505 vs Blues ELO 1516 (diff: -11)
  • Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Stars have 6 player(s) ruled out, while the Blues have 3.

This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.

Blues won 0-4

Blues won by a solid margin

Prediction CorrectWe predicted Blues at 52%

Key Factors

What's driving the win probability for this game

  • InjuriesFavors St. Louis Blues
  • Home Field AdvantageFavors Dallas Stars
  • ELO RatingNeutral
  • Rest DaysNeutral
  • Head to HeadNeutral
  • Recent FormNeutral
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What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

STL
DAL
Injuries
Home Field Advantage
ELO Rating
Favours STL|Favours DAL

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Model vs. Market

Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds

Stars

Our Model48%

Blues

Our Model52%

Understanding the win probability calculation

Injuries

Blues healthier: 3 out, 0 doubtful vs Stars 6 out, 0 doubtful

Blues

Home Field Advantage

Stars are 2-0 at home this season; Blues are 0-2 on the road

Stars

1 factor not shown (insufficient data)

Model version: 1.1.0 • Calculated: 10/3/2026, 12:45:00 AM

Stars

Cameron HughesC(Upper Body)
OUT
Jaxon FuderC(Undisclosed)
OUT
Matt DucheneC(Lower Body)
OUT
Harrison ScottC(Undisclosed)
OUT
Tristan BertucciD(Undisclosed)
OUT
Luke KrysD(Undisclosed)
OUT

Blues

Logan MaillouxD(Hand)
OUT
Tyler TuckerD(Knee)
OUT
Felix TrudeauLW(Undisclosed)
OUT

Learn About Our Analysis

Learn about the factors behind our predictions

Guide

NHL Win Probability

How we calculate NHL game outcome probabilities

4 min readRead article

Frequently Asked Questions

Stars has a 48% win probability, while Blues has a 52% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX.

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