Pittsburgh Penguins at Colorado Avalanche
Colorado Avalanche 62% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Avalanche:
- Home Field Advantage. Avalanche are 4-0 at home this season; Penguins are 2-2 on the road
- Recent Form. Avalanche (2-1) in better form than Penguins (2-2)
- ELO Rating. Avalanche ELO 1545 vs Penguins ELO 1506 (diff: +39)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Penguins at Avalanche
The Penguins visit the Avalanche at Ball Arena in Denver, CO in 2027-2028 NHL regular play.
Our model gives the Avalanche a 62% chance of winning, giving them a clear but not overwhelming advantage. The Penguins will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Home Field Advantage favors the Avalanche (medium): Avalanche are 4-0 at home this season; Penguins are 2-2 on the road
- Recent Form favors the Avalanche (low): Avalanche (2-1) in better form than Penguins (2-2)
- ELO Rating favors the Avalanche (low): Avalanche ELO 1545 vs Penguins ELO 1506 (diff: +39)
is favored to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Colorado Avalanche
- Recent FormFavors Colorado Avalanche
- ELO RatingFavors Colorado Avalanche
- InjuriesNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Key Players
Penguins
Avalanche
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Avalanche has a 62% win probability, while Penguins has a 38% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Ball Arena in Denver, CO.