Pittsburgh Penguins at Buffalo Sabres
Buffalo Sabres 74% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Sabres:
- Injuries. Sabres healthier (5 out, 0 doubtful) vs Penguins (8 out, 0 doubtful)
- Home Field Advantage. Sabres are 1-0 at home this season; Penguins are 0-1 on the road
- ELO Rating. Sabres ELO 1519 vs Penguins ELO 1491 (diff: +28)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Penguins defeated the Sabres 3-1.
Our model predicted the Sabres would win with 74% confidence, but the Penguins pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Sabres and was a major factor: Sabres healthier (5 out, 0 doubtful) vs Penguins (8 out, 0 doubtful)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Sabres and was a major factor: Sabres are 1-0 at home this season; Penguins are 0-1 on the road
- ELO Rating favored the Sabres and was a contributing factor: Sabres ELO 1519 vs Penguins ELO 1491 (diff: +28)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Sabres have 5 player(s) ruled out, while the Penguins have 8.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Penguins won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Buffalo Sabres
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Buffalo Sabres
- ELO RatingFavors Buffalo Sabres
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
Injuries
Sabres healthier (5 out, 0 doubtful) vs Penguins (8 out, 0 doubtful)
Home Field Advantage
Sabres are 1-0 at home this season; Penguins are 0-1 on the road
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Sabres has a 74% win probability, while Penguins has a 26% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, NY.