Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs
Ottawa Senators 53% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Senators:
- Injuries. Senators healthier: 4 out, 0 doubtful vs Maple Leafs 5 out, 0 doubtful
- ELO Rating. Maple Leafs ELO 1465 vs Senators ELO 1498 (diff: -33)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Senators defeated the Maple Leafs 3-2.
Our model predicted the Senators would win with 53% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Senators and was a major factor: Senators healthier: 4 out, 0 doubtful vs Maple Leafs 5 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage favored the Maple Leafs and was a notable factor: Maple Leafs are 2-2 at home this season; Senators are 0-3 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Rest Days favored the Maple Leafs and was a contributing factor: Maple Leafs rest advantage (2 days rest) over Senators (7 days rest)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Maple Leafs have 5 player(s) ruled out, while the Senators have 4.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Senators won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Ottawa Senators
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Toronto Maple Leafs
- Rest DaysFavors Toronto Maple Leafs
- ELO RatingFavors Ottawa Senators
- Recent FormNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries
Senators healthier: 4 out, 0 doubtful vs Maple Leafs 5 out, 0 doubtful
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Injury Report
Maple Leafs
Senators
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Maple Leafs has a 47% win probability, while Senators has a 53% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON.