Ottawa Senators at Montreal Canadiens
Montreal Canadiens 60% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Canadiens:
- Home Field Advantage. Canadiens are 2-0 at home this season; Senators are 0-2 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- ELO Rating. Canadiens ELO 1533 vs Senators ELO 1503 (diff: +30)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Canadiens defeated the Senators 4-2.
Our model predicted the Canadiens would win with 60% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Canadiens and was a major factor: Canadiens are 2-0 at home this season; Senators are 0-2 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- ELO Rating favored the Canadiens and was a contributing factor: Canadiens ELO 1533 vs Senators ELO 1503 (diff: +30)
- Rest Days favored the Senators and was a contributing factor: Senators rest advantage (3 days rest) over Canadiens (5 days rest)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Canadiens won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Montreal Canadiens
- ELO RatingFavors Montreal Canadiens
- Rest DaysFavors Ottawa Senators
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
Home Field Advantage
Canadiens are 2-0 at home this season; Senators are 0-2 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Canadiens has a 60% win probability, while Senators has a 40% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC.