Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings
Ottawa Senators 52% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Senators:
- Recent Form. Senators (2-0) in better form than Red Wings (0-2)
- ELO Rating. Red Wings ELO 1474 vs Senators ELO 1523 (diff: -49)
- Injuries. Senators healthier: 6 out, 0 doubtful vs Red Wings 7 out, 0 doubtful
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Red Wings defeated the Senators 5-3.
Our model predicted the Senators would win with 52% confidence, but the Red Wings pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Recent Form favored the Senators and was a major factor: Senators (2-0) in better form than Red Wings (0-2)
- Rest Days favored the Red Wings and was a major factor: Red Wings rest advantage (2 days rest) over Senators (back-to-back)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Red Wings and was a contributing factor: Red Wings are 1-3 at home this season; Senators are 2-3 on the road
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Red Wings have 7 player(s) ruled out, while the Senators have 6.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Red Wings won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Recent FormFavors Ottawa Senators
- Rest DaysFavors Detroit Red Wings
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Detroit Red Wings
- ELO RatingFavors Ottawa Senators
- InjuriesFavors Ottawa Senators
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Recent Form
Senators (2-0) in better form than Red Wings (0-2)
Offensive Efficiency
Offensive efficiency stats not yet available
Defensive Efficiency
Defensive efficiency stats not yet available
Turnover Differential
Red Wings turnover differential (+0) vs Senators (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
Rest Days
Red Wings rest advantage (2 days rest) over Senators (back-to-back)
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Injury Report
Red Wings
Senators
Key Players
Senators
Red Wings
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Red Wings has a 48% win probability, while Senators has a 52% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, MI.