Ottawa Senators at Boston Bruins
Boston Bruins 67% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Bruins:
- Injuries. Bruins healthier: 1 out, 0 doubtful vs Senators 5 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage. Bruins are 3-0 at home this season; Senators are 1-3 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Senators defeated the Bruins 4-1.
Our model predicted the Bruins would win with 67% confidence, but the Senators pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Bruins and was a major factor: Bruins healthier: 1 out, 0 doubtful vs Senators 5 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage favored the Bruins and was a notable factor: Bruins are 3-0 at home this season; Senators are 1-3 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Recent Form favored the Senators and was a contributing factor: Senators (1-0) in better form than Bruins (2-1)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Bruins have 1 player(s) ruled out, while the Senators have 5.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Senators won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Boston Bruins
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Boston Bruins
- Recent FormFavors Ottawa Senators
- Rest DaysFavors Ottawa Senators
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Bruins
Senators
Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
Injuries
Bruins healthier: 1 out, 0 doubtful vs Senators 5 out, 0 doubtful
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Key Players
Senators
Bruins
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Bruins has a 67% win probability, while Senators has a 33% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at TD Garden in Boston, MA.