Montreal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins
Pittsburgh Penguins 61% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Penguins:
- Injuries. Penguins healthier: 3 out, 0 doubtful vs Canadiens 4 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage. Penguins are 1-1 at home this season; Canadiens are 2-1 on the road
- Recent Form. Penguins (1-0) in better form than Canadiens (1-0)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Penguins defeated the Canadiens 6-5.
Our model predicted the Penguins would win with 61% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Penguins and was a notable factor: Penguins healthier: 3 out, 0 doubtful vs Canadiens 4 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage favored the Penguins and was a contributing factor: Penguins are 1-1 at home this season; Canadiens are 2-1 on the road
- Recent Form favored the Penguins and was a contributing factor: Penguins (1-0) in better form than Canadiens (1-0)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Penguins have 3 player(s) ruled out, while the Canadiens have 4.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Penguins won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Pittsburgh Penguins
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Pittsburgh Penguins
- Recent FormFavors Pittsburgh Penguins
- ELO RatingFavors Montreal Canadiens
- Rest DaysFavors Pittsburgh Penguins
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Penguins
Canadiens
Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Injury Report
Penguins
Canadiens
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Penguins has a 61% win probability, while Canadiens has a 39% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, PA.