Montreal Canadiens at Ottawa Senators
Montreal Canadiens 61% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Canadiens:
- Injuries. Canadiens healthier (2 out, 0 doubtful) vs Senators (4 out, 0 doubtful)
- Home Field Advantage. Senators are 0-1 at home this season; Canadiens are 1-0 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- ELO Rating. Senators ELO 1503 vs Canadiens ELO 1533 (diff: -30)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Senators defeated the Canadiens 4-3.
Our model predicted the Canadiens would win with 61% confidence, but the Senators pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Canadiens and was a major factor: Canadiens healthier (2 out, 0 doubtful) vs Senators (4 out, 0 doubtful)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Canadiens and was a contributing factor: Senators are 0-1 at home this season; Canadiens are 1-0 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- ELO Rating favored the Canadiens and was a contributing factor: Senators ELO 1503 vs Canadiens ELO 1533 (diff: -30)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Senators have 5 player(s) ruled out, while the Canadiens have 2.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Senators won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Montreal Canadiens
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Montreal Canadiens
- ELO RatingFavors Montreal Canadiens
- Rest DaysFavors Ottawa Senators
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
Injuries
Canadiens healthier (2 out, 0 doubtful) vs Senators (4 out, 0 doubtful)
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Senators has a 39% win probability, while Canadiens has a 61% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON.