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Los Angeles Kings at Colorado Avalanche

NHLregular • 2027-2028 Season
completed
Avalanche logo
Avalanche
Colorado
8
vs
Kings logo
Kings
Los Angeles
4
COL 47%53% LAK
Prediction Confidence:
Moderate

Los Angeles Kings 53% to win. The biggest signal favoring Kings:

  • Injuries. Kings healthier: 4 out, 0 doubtful vs Avalanche 5 out, 0 doubtful

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VenueBall Arena
Denver, CO

Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Kings (away)
Avalanche (home)
53%
Win probability
47%
1
High-impact factors
0
4
Players ruled out
5

Post-Game Analysis

How our model performed

The Avalanche defeated the Kings 8-4.

Our model predicted the Kings would win with 53% confidence, but the Avalanche pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.

Looking at the factors our model weighed:

  • Injuries favored the Kings and was a major factor: Kings healthier: 4 out, 0 doubtful vs Avalanche 5 out, 0 doubtful
  • Home Field Advantage favored the Avalanche and was a notable factor: Avalanche are 2-0 at home this season; Kings are 1-0 on the road
  • ELO Rating favored the Avalanche and was a contributing factor: Avalanche ELO 1533 vs Kings ELO 1488 (diff: +45)
  • Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Avalanche have 5 player(s) ruled out, while the Kings have 4.

This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.

Avalanche won 8-4

Avalanche won by a solid margin

Prediction IncorrectWe predicted Kings at 53%

Key Factors

What's driving the win probability for this game

  • InjuriesFavors Los Angeles Kings
  • Home Field AdvantageFavors Colorado Avalanche
  • ELO RatingFavors Colorado Avalanche
  • Rest DaysNeutral
  • Head to HeadNeutral
  • Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
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What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

LAK
COL
Injuries
Home Field Advantage
ELO Rating
Favours LAK|Favours COL

Premium feature: factor breakdown

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Model vs. Market

Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds

Avalanche

Our Model47%

Kings

Our Model53%

Understanding the win probability calculation

Injuries

Kings healthier: 4 out, 0 doubtful vs Avalanche 5 out, 0 doubtful

Kings
Model version: 1.1.0 • Calculated: 10/1/2026, 1:45:01 AM

Avalanche

Georgii MerkulovC(Undisclosed)
OUT
Trent MinerG(Undisclosed)
OUT
Taylor MakarLW(Undisclosed)
OUT
Zachary L'HeureuxLW(Lower Body)
OUT
Logan O'ConnorRW(Lower Body)
OUT

Kings

Jan JenikC(Undisclosed)
OUT
Otto SalinD(Undisclosed)
OUT
Jakub DvorakD(Upper Body)
OUT
Kevin FialaLW(Lower Leg)
OUT

Learn About Our Analysis

Learn about the factors behind our predictions

Guide

NHL Win Probability

How we calculate NHL game outcome probabilities

4 min readRead article

Frequently Asked Questions

Avalanche has a 47% win probability, while Kings has a 53% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at Ball Arena in Denver, CO.

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