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Colorado Avalanche at Calgary Flames

NHLregular • 2027-2028 Season
Scheduled
Flames logo
Flames
Calgary
0
vs
Avalanche logo
Avalanche
Colorado
0
CGY 37%63% COL
Prediction Confidence:
Moderate

Colorado Avalanche 63% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Avalanche:

  • Recent Form. Avalanche (2-0) in better form than Flames (0-3)
  • Injuries. Avalanche healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Flames 1 out, 0 doubtful
  • ELO Rating. Flames ELO 1440 vs Avalanche ELO 1550 (diff: -110)

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VenueScotiabank Saddledome
Calgary, AB

Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Avalanche (away)
Flames (home)
63%
Win probability
37%
1
High-impact factors
0
0
Players ruled out
1

Game Preview

Avalanche at Flames

The Avalanche visit the Flames at Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, AB in 2027-2028 NHL regular play.

Our model gives the Avalanche a 63% chance of winning, giving them a clear but not overwhelming advantage. The Flames will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.

Key factors driving this prediction:

  • Recent Form favors the Avalanche (high): Avalanche (2-0) in better form than Flames (0-3)
  • Home Field Advantage favors the Flames (medium): Flames are 1-2 at home this season; Avalanche are 0-2 on the road
  • Injuries favors the Avalanche (medium): Avalanche healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Flames 1 out, 0 doubtful
  • The Flames are without 1 player(s) due to injury, which could tilt the matchup.
Avalanche63%

is favored to win

Key Factor
Recent Form
Favors COL

Key Factors

What's driving the win probability for this game

  • Recent FormFavors Colorado Avalanche
  • Home Field AdvantageFavors Calgary Flames
  • InjuriesFavors Colorado Avalanche
  • ELO RatingFavors Colorado Avalanche
  • Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
  • Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
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What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

COL
CGY
Recent Form
Home Field Advantage
Injuries
ELO Rating
Favours COL|Favours CGY

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Understanding the win probability calculation

Recent Form

Avalanche (2-0) in better form than Flames (0-3)

Avalanche

Defensive Efficiency

Defensive efficiency stats not yet available

Neutral

Offensive Efficiency

Offensive efficiency stats not yet available

Neutral

Turnover Differential

Flames turnover differential (+0) vs Avalanche (+0)

Neutral
Model version: 1.1.0 • Calculated: 10/5/2026, 8:50:01 AM

Flames

Jonathan HuberdeauLW(Hip)
OUT

Avalanche

No injuries reported

Learn About Our Analysis

Learn about the factors behind our predictions

Guide

NHL Win Probability

How we calculate NHL game outcome probabilities

4 min readRead article

Frequently Asked Questions

Flames has a 37% win probability, while Avalanche has a 63% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, AB.

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