Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers
Edmonton Oilers 57% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Oilers:
- Home Field Advantage. Oilers are 1-0 at home this season; Flames are 0-1 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- ELO Rating. Oilers ELO 1521 vs Flames ELO 1474 (diff: +47)
- Rest Days. Oilers rest advantage (2 days rest) over Flames (1 day rest)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Oilers defeated the Flames 4-1.
Our model predicted the Oilers would win with 57% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Oilers and was a major factor: Oilers are 1-0 at home this season; Flames are 0-1 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Injuries favored the Flames and was a notable factor: Flames healthier (2 out, 0 doubtful) vs Oilers (3 out, 0 doubtful)
- ELO Rating favored the Oilers and was a contributing factor: Oilers ELO 1521 vs Flames ELO 1474 (diff: +47)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Oilers have 3 player(s) ruled out, while the Flames have 2.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Oilers won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Edmonton Oilers
- InjuriesFavors Calgary Flames
- ELO RatingFavors Edmonton Oilers
- Rest DaysFavors Edmonton Oilers
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
Home Field Advantage
Oilers are 1-0 at home this season; Flames are 0-1 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Oilers has a 57% win probability, while Flames has a 43% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB.