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Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers

NHLregular • 2027-2028 Season
completed
Flyers logo
Flyers
Philadelphia
2
vs
Hurricanes logo
Hurricanes
Carolina
3
PHI 48%52% CAR
Prediction Confidence:
Moderate

Carolina Hurricanes 52% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Hurricanes:

  • Injuries. Hurricanes healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Flyers 3 out, 0 doubtful
  • ELO Rating. Flyers ELO 1489 vs Hurricanes ELO 1572 (diff: -83)

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VenueXfinity Mobile Arena
Philadelphia, PA

Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Hurricanes (away)
Flyers (home)
52%
Win probability
48%
0
High-impact factors
0
2
Players ruled out
3

Post-Game Analysis

How our model performed

The Hurricanes defeated the Flyers 3-2.

Our model predicted the Hurricanes would win with 52% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.

Looking at the factors our model weighed:

  • Injuries favored the Hurricanes and was a notable factor: Hurricanes healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Flyers 3 out, 0 doubtful
  • ELO Rating favored the Hurricanes and was a contributing factor: Flyers ELO 1489 vs Hurricanes ELO 1572 (diff: -83)
  • Home Field Advantage favored the Flyers and was a contributing factor: Flyers are 1-2 at home this season; Hurricanes are 1-1 on the road
  • Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Flyers have 3 player(s) ruled out, while the Hurricanes have 2.

This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.

Hurricanes won 2-3

Hurricanes won in a close game

Prediction CorrectWe predicted Hurricanes at 52%

Key Factors

What's driving the win probability for this game

  • InjuriesFavors Carolina Hurricanes
  • ELO RatingFavors Carolina Hurricanes
  • Home Field AdvantageFavors Philadelphia Flyers
  • Rest DaysFavors Philadelphia Flyers
  • Recent FormNeutral
  • Turnover DifferentialNeutral
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What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

CAR
PHI
Injuries
ELO Rating
Home Field Advantage
Rest Days
Recent Form
Favours CAR|Favours PHI

Premium feature: factor breakdown

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Model vs. Market

Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds

Flyers

Our Model48%

Hurricanes

Our Model52%

Understanding the win probability calculation

Model version: 1.1.0 • Calculated: 10/3/2026, 10:45:03 PM

Flyers

Denver BarkeyC(Lower Body)
OUT
Helge GransD(Lower Body)
OUT
Nikita GrebenkinRW(Upper Body)
OUT

Hurricanes

Seth JarvisC(Shoulder)
OUT
Alexander NikishinD(Contract Dispute)
OUT

Learn About Our Analysis

Learn about the factors behind our predictions

Guide

NHL Win Probability

How we calculate NHL game outcome probabilities

4 min readRead article

Frequently Asked Questions

Flyers has a 48% win probability, while Hurricanes has a 52% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, PA.

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