Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Commanders defeated the Cowboys 23-19.
Our model predicted the Commanders would win with 53% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Commanders and was a contributing factor: Washington Commanders offense (5.2 YPP) outpaces Dallas Cowboys (4.7 YPP)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Cowboys and was a contributing factor: Dallas Cowboys are 5-3 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Recent Form favored the Commanders and was a contributing factor: Washington Commanders (12-6) in better form than Dallas Cowboys (9-9)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Commanders won by a solid margin
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Cowboys has a 47% win probability, while Commanders has a 53% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX.