Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Patriots defeated the Dolphins 38-10.
Our model predicted the Patriots would win with 52% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Patriots and was a contributing factor: New England Patriots are 4-3 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Dolphins and was a contributing factor: Miami Dolphins defense (5.2 YPP allowed) is stronger than New England Patriots (5.3 YPP allowed)
- Turnover Differential favored the Dolphins and was a contributing factor: New England Patriots turnover differential (-1) vs Miami Dolphins (+3)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Patriots won in a blowout
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
NFL Win Probability
How we calculate NFL game outcome probabilities using advanced metrics
Home Field Advantage
How playing at home affects NFL win probability
NFL Weather Impact
How weather conditions influence NFL games and predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Patriots has a 52% win probability, while Dolphins has a 48% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA.