NBA weekly recap: week of 2026-10-26 (2026-27)
Hit rate this week: 56% across 9 games; season-to-date: 59%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 76% — final CLE 127–MIN 125
- Defensive Efficiency (favors MIN)
- Offensive Efficiency (favors MIN)
- Injuries (favors CLE)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grizzlies at Kings Sun, Oct 25 | SAC 10% • MEM 90% | SAC 112–MEM 123 | Hit |
| Wizards at Hornets Mon, Oct 26 | CHA 40% • WSH 60% | CHA 110–WSH 103 | Miss |
| Timberwolves at Cavaliers Mon, Oct 26 | CLE 24% • MIN 76% | CLE 127–MIN 125 | Miss |
| Bulls at Celtics Mon, Oct 26 | BOS 74% • CHI 26% | BOS 134–CHI 99 | Hit |
| Mavericks at Heat Mon, Oct 26 | MIA 42% • DAL 58% | MIA 109–DAL 113 | Hit |
| Pacers at Bucks Mon, Oct 26 | MIL 37% • IND 63% | MIL 110–IND 102 | Miss |
| Suns at Thunder Mon, Oct 26 | OKC 68% • PHX 32% | OKC 125–PHX 114 | Hit |
| Hawks at Rockets Mon, Oct 26 | HOU 33% • ATL 67% | HOU 120–ATL 110 | Miss |
| Grizzlies at Jazz Mon, Oct 26 | UTA 13% • MEM 87% | UTA 105–MEM 110 | Hit |