PlayDecoded
Menu

Utah Jazz at Denver Nuggets

NBApreseason • 2027-2028 Season
completed
Nuggets logo
Nuggets
Denver
97
vs
Jazz logo
Jazz
Utah
109
DEN 66%34% UTA
Prediction Confidence:
Moderate

Denver Nuggets 66% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Nuggets:

  • ELO Rating. Nuggets ELO 1555 vs Jazz ELO 1333 (diff: +222); both ratings carried over from last season
  • Home Field Advantage. Standard home-field edge for Nuggets (no home or road games yet this season)
  • Injuries. Nuggets less affected by injuries: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Jazz 0 out, 0 doubtful, but the missing Jazz players matter more

Make Your Prediction

View leaderboard to see rankings

VenueCU Events Center
Boulder, CO

Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Jazz (away)
Nuggets (home)
34%
Win probability
66%
0
High-impact factors
0
0
Players ruled out
0

Post-Game Analysis

How our model performed

The Jazz defeated the Nuggets 109-97.

Our model predicted the Nuggets would win with 66% confidence, but the Jazz pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.

Looking at the factors our model weighed:

  • ELO Rating favored the Nuggets and was a notable factor: Nuggets ELO 1555 vs Jazz ELO 1333 (diff: +222); both ratings carried over from last season
  • Home Field Advantage favored the Nuggets and was a notable factor: Standard home-field edge for Nuggets (no home or road games yet this season)
  • Injuries favored the Nuggets and was a contributing factor: Nuggets less affected by injuries: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Jazz 0 out, 0 doubtful, but the missing Jazz players matter more

This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.

Jazz won 97-109

Jazz won comfortably

Prediction IncorrectWe predicted Nuggets at 66%

Key Factors

What's driving the win probability for this game

  • ELO RatingFavors Denver Nuggets
  • Home Field AdvantageFavors Denver Nuggets
  • InjuriesFavors Denver Nuggets
  • Turnover DifferentialNeutral
  • Head to HeadNeutral
  • Recent FormNeutral
Sign in to see factor scores, charts, and what-if simulations

What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

UTA
DEN
ELO Rating
Home Field Advantage
Injuries
Favours UTA|Favours DEN

Premium feature: factor breakdown

Start 14-day free trial →

Understanding the win probability calculation

2 factors not shown (insufficient data)

Model version: 1.1.0 • Calculated: 10/4/2026, 10:45:01 PM

Nuggets

Spencer JonesF(Hamstring)
QUESTIONABLE
Trevon BrazileF(Undisclosed)
QUESTIONABLE
Jamal MurrayG(Personal)
QUESTIONABLE

Jazz

Brice SensabaughF(Hip)
QUESTIONABLE
Kyle FilipowskiF(Back)
QUESTIONABLE
Josh GreenG(Knee)
QUESTIONABLE

Key Players

Jazz

Josh OkogieG
Trey AlexanderG
Josh GreenGQUESTIONABLE
Ace BaileyG
Isaiah CollierG

Nuggets

Ryan NembhardG
DeMar DeRozanG
Christian BraunG
Tyus JonesG
Jamal MurrayGQUESTIONABLE

Learn About Our Analysis

Learn about the factors behind our predictions

Guide

NBA Win Probability

How we calculate NBA game outcome probabilities

4 min readRead article
Deep Dive

Back-to-Back Fatigue

How schedule and rest affect NBA game outcomes

3 min readRead article

Frequently Asked Questions

Nuggets has a 66% win probability, while Jazz has a 34% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at CU Events Center in Boulder, CO.

View all NBA games