PlayDecoded
Menu

New Orleans Pelicans at Miami Heat

NBApreseason • 2027-2028 Season
Scheduled
Heat logo
Heat
Miami
0
vs
Pelicans logo
Pelicans
New Orleans
0
MIA 52%48% NOP
Prediction Confidence:
Moderate

Miami Heat 52% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Heat:

  • Offensive Efficiency. Heat offense (129.0 PPG) outpaces Pelicans (0.0 PPG)
  • Home Field Advantage. Standard home-field edge for Heat (no home or road games yet this season)
  • ELO Rating. Heat ELO 1522 vs Pelicans ELO 1425 (diff: +98); Pelicans rating carried over from last season

Make Your Prediction

Sign in to make predictions

View leaderboard to see rankings

VenueKaseya Center
Miami, FL

Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Pelicans (away)
Heat (home)
48%
Win probability
52%
1
High-impact factors
1
0
Players ruled out
1

Game Preview

Pelicans at Heat

The Pelicans visit the Heat at Kaseya Center in Miami, FL in 2027-2028 NBA preseason play.

Our model gives the Heat a 52% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. The Pelicans will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.

Key factors driving this prediction:

  • Offensive Efficiency favors the Heat (high): Heat offense (129.0 PPG) outpaces Pelicans (0.0 PPG)
  • Defensive Efficiency favors the Pelicans (high): Pelicans defense (0.0 Opp PPG) better than Heat (105.0 Opp PPG)
  • Injuries favors the Pelicans (medium): Pelicans healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Heat 1 out, 0 doubtful
  • The Heat are without 1 player(s) due to injury, which could tilt the matchup.
Heat52%

has a slight edge to win

Key Factor
Offensive Efficiency
Favors MIA

Key Factors

What's driving the win probability for this game

  • Offensive EfficiencyFavors Miami Heat
  • Defensive EfficiencyFavors New Orleans Pelicans
  • InjuriesFavors New Orleans Pelicans
  • Home Field AdvantageFavors Miami Heat
  • ELO RatingFavors Miami Heat
  • Rest DaysNeutral
Sign in to see factor scores, charts, and what-if simulations

What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

NOP
MIA
Offensive Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Injuries
Home Field Advantage
ELO Rating
Favours NOP|Favours MIA

Premium feature: factor breakdown

Start 14-day free trial →

Understanding the win probability calculation

Offensive Efficiency

Heat offense (129.0 PPG) outpaces Pelicans (0.0 PPG)

Heat

Defensive Efficiency

Pelicans defense (0.0 Opp PPG) better than Heat (105.0 Opp PPG)

Pelicans

Turnover Differential

Heat turnover differential (+0) vs Pelicans (+0)

Neutral

2 factors not shown (insufficient data)

Model version: 1.1.0 • Calculated: 10/5/2026, 8:30:01 AM

Heat

Keshad JohnsonF(Hamstring)
OUT
Dru SmithG(Calf)
QUESTIONABLE

Pelicans

No injuries reported

Learn About Our Analysis

Learn about the factors behind our predictions

Guide

NBA Win Probability

How we calculate NBA game outcome probabilities

4 min readRead article
Deep Dive

Back-to-Back Fatigue

How schedule and rest affect NBA game outcomes

3 min readRead article

Frequently Asked Questions

Heat has a 52% win probability, while Pelicans has a 48% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at Kaseya Center in Miami, FL.

View all NBA games