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Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors

NBApreseason • 2027-2028 Season
completed
Raptors logo
Raptors
Toronto
105
vs
Heat logo
Heat
Miami
129
TOR 50%50% MIA
Prediction Confidence:
Moderate

Miami Heat 50% to win. The biggest signal favoring Heat:

  • Injuries. Heat less affected by injuries: 1 out, 0 doubtful vs Raptors 0 out, 0 doubtful, but the missing Raptors players matter more

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VenueVideotron Centre
Quebec City, PQ

Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Heat (away)
Raptors (home)
50%
Win probability
50%
0
High-impact factors
0
1
Players ruled out
0

Post-Game Analysis

How our model performed

The Heat defeated the Raptors 129-105.

Our model predicted the Heat would win with 50% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.

Looking at the factors our model weighed:

  • Injuries favored the Heat and was a notable factor: Heat less affected by injuries: 1 out, 0 doubtful vs Raptors 0 out, 0 doubtful, but the missing Raptors players matte...
  • Home Field Advantage favored the Raptors and was a notable factor: Standard home-field edge for Raptors (no home or road games yet this season)
  • ELO Rating was neutral and a contributing factor: Raptors ELO 1515 vs Heat ELO 1497 (diff: +18); both ratings carried over from last season
  • The Heat are without 1 player(s) due to injury, which could tilt the matchup.

This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.

Heat won 105-129

Heat won in a blowout

Prediction CorrectWe predicted Heat at 50%

Key Factors

What's driving the win probability for this game

  • InjuriesFavors Miami Heat
  • Home Field AdvantageFavors Toronto Raptors
  • ELO RatingNeutral
  • Rest DaysNeutral
  • Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
  • Turnover DifferentialNeutral
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What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

MIA
TOR
Injuries
Home Field Advantage
ELO Rating
Favours MIA|Favours TOR

Premium feature: factor breakdown

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Understanding the win probability calculation

2 factors not shown (insufficient data)

Model version: 1.1.0 • Calculated: 10/3/2026, 10:45:04 PM

Raptors

Nate BittleC(Foot)
QUESTIONABLE
Kyle AndersonF(Knee)
QUESTIONABLE
Jamison BattleF(Back)
QUESTIONABLE
Trayce Jackson-DavisF(Undisclosed)
QUESTIONABLE
Allen GravesF(Groin)
QUESTIONABLE
Kawhi LeonardF(Not Injury Related)
QUESTIONABLE
Alijah MartinG(Knee)
QUESTIONABLE
Chucky HepburnG(Knee)
QUESTIONABLE

Heat

Keshad JohnsonF(Hamstring)
OUT
Dru SmithG(Calf)
QUESTIONABLE

Learn About Our Analysis

Learn about the factors behind our predictions

Guide

NBA Win Probability

How we calculate NBA game outcome probabilities

4 min readRead article
Deep Dive

Back-to-Back Fatigue

How schedule and rest affect NBA game outcomes

3 min readRead article

Frequently Asked Questions

Raptors has a 50% win probability, while Heat has a 50% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at Videotron Centre in Quebec City, PQ.

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