Memphis Grizzlies at Atlanta Hawks

NBApreseason • 2027-2028 Season

Scheduled

Hawks

Atlanta

Grizzlies

Memphis

ATL 57%43% MEM

Prediction Confidence:

Moderate

Atlanta Hawks 57% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Hawks:

ELO Rating. Hawks ELO 1522 vs Grizzlies ELO 1327 (diff: +195); both ratings carried over from last season
Home Field Advantage. Standard home-field edge for Hawks (no home or road games yet this season)

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VenueState Farm Arena

Atlanta, GA

Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Grizzlies (away)

Hawks (home)

43%

Win probability

57%

High-impact factors

Players ruled out

Game Preview

Grizzlies at Hawks

The Grizzlies visit the Hawks at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, GA in 2027-2028 NBA preseason play.

Our model gives the Hawks a 57% chance of winning, making this a competitive contest. The Grizzlies will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.

Key factors driving this prediction:

ELO Rating favors the Hawks (medium): Hawks ELO 1522 vs Grizzlies ELO 1327 (diff: +195); both ratings carried over from last season
Injuries favors the Grizzlies (medium): Grizzlies healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Hawks 1 out, 0 doubtful
Home Field Advantage favors the Hawks (medium): Standard home-field edge for Hawks (no home or road games yet this season)
The Hawks are without 1 player(s) due to injury, which could tilt the matchup.

Hawks57%

is favored to win

Key Factor

ELO Rating

Favors ATL

Key Factors

What's driving the win probability for this game

ELO RatingFavors Atlanta Hawks
InjuriesFavors Memphis Grizzlies
Home Field AdvantageFavors Atlanta Hawks
Head to HeadNeutral
Recent FormNeutral
Defensive EfficiencyNeutral

What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

MEM

ATL

ELO Rating

Injuries

Home Field Advantage

Favours MEM|Favours ATL

Premium feature: factor breakdown

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Understanding the win probability calculation

Team Performance

Low impactHow team performanceworks →

3 factors

Defensive Efficiency

Defensive efficiency stats not yet available

Neutral

Offensive Efficiency

Offensive efficiency stats not yet available

Neutral

Turnover Differential

Hawks turnover differential (+0) vs Grizzlies (+0)

Neutral

Injuries & Personnel

Medium impactHow injuries & personnelworks →

1 factor

Injuries

Grizzlies healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Hawks 1 out, 0 doubtful

Grizzlies

Home & Venue

Medium impactHow home & venueworks →

1 factor

Home Field Advantage

Standard home-field edge for Hawks (no home or road games yet this season)

Hawks

Historical

Low impactHow historicalworks →

1 factor

Head to Head

No recent head-to-head history available

Neutral

Other

Medium impact

1 factor

ELO Rating

Hawks ELO 1522 vs Grizzlies ELO 1327 (diff: +195); both ratings carried over from last season

Hawks

2 factors not shown (insufficient data)

Model version: 1.1.0 • Calculated: 10/4/2026, 8:30:00 AM

Injury Report

Hawks

Henri VeesaarC(Knee)

OUT

Mouhamed GueyeF(Foot)

QUESTIONABLE

RayJ DennisG(Achilles)

QUESTIONABLE

Keshon GilbertG(Hip)

QUESTIONABLE

Grizzlies

Zach EdeyC(Ankle)

QUESTIONABLE

Karim LopezF(Undisclosed)

QUESTIONABLE

Micah PeavyG(Ankle)

QUESTIONABLE

Learn About Our Analysis

Learn about the factors behind our predictions

Guide

NBA Win Probability

How we calculate NBA game outcome probabilities

4 min readRead article

Deep Dive

Back-to-Back Fatigue

How schedule and rest affect NBA game outcomes

3 min readRead article

Frequently Asked Questions

Hawks has a 57% win probability, while Grizzlies has a 43% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, GA.

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