Atlanta Hawks at New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans Pelicans 52% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Pelicans:
- Defensive Efficiency. Pelicans defense (110.2 Opp PPG) better than Hawks (117.2 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Pelicans are 1-0 at home this season; Hawks are 3-0 on the road
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Hawks at Pelicans
The Hawks visit the Pelicans at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, LA in 2027-2028 NBA regular play.
Our model gives the Pelicans a 52% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. The Hawks will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Offensive Efficiency favors the Hawks (high): Hawks offense (122.6 PPG) outpaces Pelicans (110.5 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favors the Pelicans (high): Pelicans defense (110.2 Opp PPG) better than Hawks (117.2 Opp PPG)
- ELO Rating favors the Hawks (low): Pelicans ELO 1451 vs Hawks ELO 1554 (diff: -103)
has a slight edge to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Atlanta Hawks
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors New Orleans Pelicans
- ELO RatingFavors Atlanta Hawks
- Home Field AdvantageFavors New Orleans Pelicans
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Hawks offense (122.6 PPG) outpaces Pelicans (110.5 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Pelicans defense (110.2 Opp PPG) better than Hawks (117.2 Opp PPG)
Turnover Differential
Pelicans turnover differential (+0) vs Hawks (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Hawks
Pelicans
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Pelicans has a 52% win probability, while Hawks has a 48% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, LA.