New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays 52% to win. The biggest signal favoring Rays:
- Home Field Advantage. Rays are 51-21 at home this season; Yankees are 41-37 on the road
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Game Preview
Yankees at Rays
The Yankees visit the Rays at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida in 2026-2027 MLB postseason play.
Our model gives the Rays a 52% chance of winning, making this an extremely close matchup. The Yankees will need to find an edge to pull off the upset.
Key factors driving this prediction:
- Defensive Efficiency favors the Yankees (low): Yankees pitching/defense (3.7 RA/G) better than Rays (4.0 RA/G)
- Home Field Advantage favors the Rays (medium): Rays are 51-21 at home this season; Yankees are 41-37 on the road
- Offensive Efficiency is neutral: Similar run production (4.5 vs 4.6 R/G)
has a slight edge to win
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors New York Yankees
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Tampa Bay Rays
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Yankees
Rays
No player data available
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Rays has a 52% win probability, while Yankees has a 48% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida.